Nvidia
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Nvidia’s GTC was an absolute spectacle; it was also a different kind of keynote than before ChatGPT, which is related to Nvidia’s need to dig a new kind of software moat.
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Nvidia has gone from the valley to the mountain-top in less than a year, thanks to ChatGPT and the frenzy it inspired; whether or not there is a cliff depends on developing new kinds of…
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Nvidia is in the valley in terms of gaming, the data center, and the omniverse; if it makes it to future heights its margins will be well-earned.
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Trump Allows H200 Sales to China, The Sliding Scale, A Good Decision
The Trump administration has effectively unwound the Biden era chip controls by selling the H200 to China; I agree with the decision, which is a return to longstanding U.S. policy.
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Google, Nvidia, and OpenAI
OpenAI and Nvidia are both under threat from Google; I like OpenAI’s chances best, but they need an advertising model to beat Google as an Aggregator.
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Nvidia Earnings; Power, Scarcity, and Marginal Costs; OpenAI Hand-wringing
Nvidia earnings are the wrong place to look for evidence of an AI bubble; the company’s margins should be safe if power is the limiting factor.
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Gemini 3, Winners and Losers, Integration and the Enterprise
Gemini 3 is out, and looks to be state of the art. What does that mean for everyone else in the AI space, and what markets might Google win?
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Amazon Earnings, AWS and OpenAI, Did Amazon Solve Groceries?
Amazon says the constraint right now is power, not chips; it’s giving plenty of the latter to OpenAI. Then, Amazon solves groceries by getting faster tat delivering everything else.
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Nvidia GTC in DC, Qualcomm’s AI Chip, OpenAI’s Restructuring
Nvidia makes its pitch to DC to preserve its CUDA moat, which also explains the challenges facing Qualcomm’s new chip. Then, OpenAI’s restructuring and Microsoft’s collar trade.
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OpenAI and Broadcom, ChatGPT and XPUs, AMD and Nvidia
OpenAI’s deal with Broadcom makes perfect sense, because OpenAI already knows exactly what workloads it needs to optimize.
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China and Rare Earth Metals, Chips and Rare Earths, The U.S.’s Self-Inflicted Challenge
China is instituting controls on rare earths, which are essential for technology, that look like chip controls; we can fix the problem by building, but we might not be able to.