Chips
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Moore’s Law is not yet dead, nor is Moore’s Precept, even if AI computes differently. Addressing both is the key to succeeding with the China chip ban.
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Understanding the path the semiconductor industry took to today both shows where China needs to go and also explains why the risks for geopolitical conflict are higher than ever.
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TSMC showed the power of modularization, and now they are core to the U.S. national security strategy.
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Trump Allows H200 Sales to China, The Sliding Scale, A Good Decision
The Trump administration has effectively unwound the Biden era chip controls by selling the H200 to China; I agree with the decision, which is a return to longstanding U.S. policy.
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AWS re:Invent, Agents for AWS, Nova Forge
AWS re:Invent sought to present AI solutions in the spirit of AWS’ original impact on startups; the real targets may be the startups from that era, not the current one.
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Google, Nvidia, and OpenAI
OpenAI and Nvidia are both under threat from Google; I like OpenAI’s chances best, but they need an advertising model to beat Google as an Aggregator.
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Nvidia Earnings; Power, Scarcity, and Marginal Costs; OpenAI Hand-wringing
Nvidia earnings are the wrong place to look for evidence of an AI bubble; the company’s margins should be safe if power is the limiting factor.
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Gemini 3, Winners and Losers, Integration and the Enterprise
Gemini 3 is out, and looks to be state of the art. What does that mean for everyone else in the AI space, and what markets might Google win?
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Microsoft Earnings, CoreAI/MantleAI, Additional Notes
Microsoft declares independence from OpenAI and sketches out its future role building scaffolding for AI. Plus, Windows is tiny now.
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Amazon Earnings, AWS and OpenAI, Did Amazon Solve Groceries?
Amazon says the constraint right now is power, not chips; it’s giving plenty of the latter to OpenAI. Then, Amazon solves groceries by getting faster tat delivering everything else.
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An Interview with Substrate CEO James Proud About Building a Disruptive Foundry in America
An interview with Substrate CEO James Proud about X-ray lithography, disrupting TSMC, and betting on American innovation.