Chips
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Moore’s Law is not yet dead, nor is Moore’s Precept, even if AI computes differently. Addressing both is the key to succeeding with the China chip ban.
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Understanding the path the semiconductor industry took to today both shows where China needs to go and also explains why the risks for geopolitical conflict are higher than ever.
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TSMC showed the power of modularization, and now they are core to the U.S. national security strategy.
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Apple Earnings, Supply Chain Speculation, China and Industrial Design
Apple’s earnings could have been higher but the company couldn’t get enough chips; then, once again a new design meant higher sales in China.
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Microsoft and Software Survival
Microsoft got hammered on Wall Street for capacity allocation decisions that were the right ones: the software that wins will use AI to usurp other software.
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Intel Earnings, The Agentic Opportunity, Intel’s Mistaken Pessimism
Intel’s earnings were disappointing because the company is missing a huge opportunity by virtue of selling off its capacity.
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TSMC Earnings, The TSMC Brake Revisited, Why AI Needs Foundry Competition
TSMC admitted that it has invested too little in the face of overwhelming demand for AI; that’s why the industry needs to facilitate competition for the foundry leader.
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Nvidia at CES, Vera Rubin and AI-Native Storage Infrastructure, Alpamayo
Nvidia’s CES announcements didn’t have much for consumers, but affects them all the same.
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Nvidia and Groq, A Stinkily Brilliant Deal, Why This Deal Makes Sense
Nvidia is licensing Groq’s technology and hiring most of its employees; it’s the most potent application of tech’s don’t-call-it-an-acquisition deal model yet.
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Trump Allows H200 Sales to China, The Sliding Scale, A Good Decision
The Trump administration has effectively unwound the Biden era chip controls by selling the H200 to China; I agree with the decision, which is a return to longstanding U.S. policy.
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AWS re:Invent, Agents for AWS, Nova Forge
AWS re:Invent sought to present AI solutions in the spirit of AWS’ original impact on startups; the real targets may be the startups from that era, not the current one.
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Google, Nvidia, and OpenAI
OpenAI and Nvidia are both under threat from Google; I like OpenAI’s chances best, but they need an advertising model to beat Google as an Aggregator.